If you haven't made plans to be there, check out the post below...UFC 74 @ Matt's house @7PM.
We’ve waited nearly two very long months for UFC 74: “Respect” tomorrow night at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.
We’ve had so much time to hear about and discuss this fight card that it would seem like we’ve made up our minds about the potential results.
Not the case.
Me and our loyal contributor, Jesse Holland, went head-to-head once again, attempting to predict the outcomes on the main card action at UFC 74.
Yep, back by unpopular demand we’re once again off to provide UFCmania readers with two unique perspectives on the main card fights.
We agree on four out of the five fights (surprisingly), but I’m still at a crossroads on a few fights even on the eve of the event.
Who knows.
Below, you’ll see that we both took one fighter in each bout to support. It’s important to note that while we may be lauding a certain fighter, he isn’t necessarily the guy who we think is going to win.
Basically, we never want this to come out sounding repetitive — I do that enough day in and day out. At the end of each analysis, therefore, you will see our picks.
Here we go:
Randy Couture (15-8) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (8-1)
UFCmania: At 44 years old, Randy Couture not only defies genetics, but oddsmakers, too. He thrives in the underdog role, winning 10 of 11 fights in that capacity — his loss to Chuck Liddell at UFC 57 being the only exception. He also happens to boast a tremendous amount of skill and experience. Like a fine wine (Yes, I said it) he seems to get better with age. “The Natural” has evolved into a master gameplanner with his recent win over Tim Sylvia being the prime example. Couture, however, has been far more gracious leading up to this fight with Gonzaga in terms of praise and what he knows will be a very tough fight. I’m not sure Randy believes deep down that he will win this fight, but I do. Gonzaga is a beast and will no doubt be around for a long time. I just don’t see Couture losing this one. He’s going to push the pace early and wear down the younger, stronger Gonzaga en route to a late-round referee stoppage. Cardio and no “pre-fight” jitters are going to be the difference makers in this one.
Jesse Holland: Gabriel Gonzaga, like Anderson Silva before him, turned the UFC on its head back at UFC 70. “Napao” was supposed to be cannon fodder for the newly acquired Mirko Cro Cop. Instead Gonzaga proved that with heart, determination and a perfectly timed head kick you can beat anyone. Now he looks to ride that momentum right into a championship win. It won’t be an easy task however as Randy Couture has made a career out of defying the odds. Still, it’s hard not to favor the younger and more powerful Brazilian. Gonzaga is skilled at both jiu-jitsu and striking, but needs to keep this fight on the ground where he can control the pace and eventually work the submission or try and ground and pound his way to the belt. Knowing Gonzaga’s reputation for running out of gas and Couture’s ability to fight for a week straight, Napao needs to bring the fury hard and fast. If he can, he may very well leave Vegas the UFC heavyweight champ.
Final Predictions:
UFCmania — Couture via technical knockout
Holland — Couture via technical knockout
Georges St. Pierre (13-2) vs. Josh Koscheck (9-1)
UFCmania: Josh Koscheck has been competing in some capacity since he more or less stopped rocking diapers. This guy is a sensational wrestler who has defeated the top competition in the nation at his weight class for the better part of his adolescent and adult life. His resume is that good. But, this is mixed martial arts and not a wrestling match. I think those skills and that experience will no doubt give Koscheck a very good chance at winning this fight. Cripes, his stand-up even looked solid his last time out against Diego Sanchez. This is going to be a much better fight than most people give it credit. I see it going down much like St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn ala UFC 58: Koscheck is going to come out strong and dominate the first round. After that, St. Pierre will win the next two en route to a decision win, putting to rest all the “heart” and “mental toughness” talk for good. Or … at least another fight.
Jesse Holland: Come back Georges St. Pierre, all is forgiven. Some UFC fans may have turned their backs on the young Canadian but to be fair, GSP brings it upon himself. I think the Matt Serra loss and subsequent aftermath was a huge wake-up call. While he still may not have his head screwed on straight, I think we are going to see an angry GSP on Saturday. Koscheck knows how to win and has great credentials, but he’s never faced a fighter as dynamic as GSP. Koscheck’s wrestling will mean nothing in this contest, just as Sherk’s did when he faced the former champ back at UFC 56. GSP’s win column is a “who’s who” of UFC champions including the aforementioned Sherk, Matt Hughes and BJ Penn. He’s also gone to war with Karo Parisyan and snuffed out Frank Trigg. The biggest test to date for Koscheck was a zombie-like Diego Sanchez, who could be the first fighter to bring Matador D to an MMA match. This one won’t last long.
Final Predictions:
UFCmania — St. Pierre via decision
Holland — St. Pierre via technical knockout
Joe Stevenson (27-7) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (10-2)
UFCmania: Since losing to Drew Fickett and dropping down to lightweight, Kurt Pellegrino has been on a tear, submitting his last three opponents all in the first round. That’s more than likely not going to happen against Joe Stevenson, but at the same time, it wouldn’t surprise me if it did. This should be a very technical ground war — neither fighter boasts very dangerous stand-up games. For me, again, this one comes down to conditioning. And I hate to say it, but that’s been just about the only knock on Stevenson. I think he’s ready for a full 15 minutes, however, and he’s going to need it against an extremely game “Batman.” At the end of the bout, this fight ends in a decision and Stevenson goes on to fight BJ Penn for the vacant 155-pound title later this year.
Jesse Holland: If they were handing out an award for the UFC’s most improved fighter, it would probably go to Joe Stevenson. He looked flat against Luke Cummo at the TUF 2 finale and his loss to Josh Neer was less than inspiring. Since then he’s been on an absolute tear. His move to lightweight brought out the talent we all knew he had, as he laid waste to Yves Edwards and dropped the guillotine on Dokonjonosuke Mishima and Melvin Guillard. Pellegrino is no pushover however, and this is not the time for “Daddy” to get careless. Stevenson’s best chance is on the ground where he can unleash his ruthless ground and pound. If Pellegrino gives up his back, it will be over quickly. This is an important match for Stevenson because a win here (should) put him into title contention. He may have that on his head going into Saturday night but I don’t think a fighter with his experience will be fazed by it.
Final Predictions:
UFCmania — Stevenson via decision
Holland — Stevenson via submission
Roger Huerta (18-1-1) vs. Alberto Crane (8-0)
UFCmania: Alberto Crane has been out of the professional fight game for two years. Yet, he has somehow secured a spot on a UFC main card pay-per-view (PPV) against one of the brightest stars in the lightweight division. Set up? Perhaps. But Crane is a very slick and experienced ground fighter, earning his Brazilian jiu-jitsu blackbelt under the esteemed Carlos Gracie. Huerta, for some reason, never impresses me. His cardio and “fightuidtiveness” certainly does, but that’s about it. “El Matador” looked real shaky against Doug Evans, and although the fight was dynamite, he should have finished Leonard Garcia at UFC 69 to earn my utmost and armchair respect. Put simply, Huerta looks the part and acts the part, but I don’t think he is the part. Not now, anyway. Crane says he sees holes in Huerta’s game … and I believe him. When I think Alberto Crane for this fight, I think Jason MacDonald. And when I think Roger Huerta for this fight, I think Ed Herman. Color me crazy. Check back on Sunday when I might have egg on my face. For now, I’m going with the upset and Crane via submission. And it might just be the best thing to happen to Huerta for the long-term.
Jesse Holland: Roger Huerta may be the hardest working man in showbiz. Since his fight against John Halverson at UFC 67, “El Matador” has been fighting every two months with Saturday’s match being his fourth in 2007. It’s not unreasonable to think such a pace can catch up with a fighter (see the Evans match), but I don’t think it’s a problem for the young lightweight. Like Stevenson, Huerta is on the fast track to a lightweight title match and he needs to keep the momentum going. Perhaps the reward for fighting so frequently is yet another unproven UFC newcomer? It’s no reward for us. Alberto Crane is a very talented submission specialist, but against who? And how do we know if Crane will fold under the pressure of fighting on his first live pay-per-view? There are too many unanswered question for me to think Huerta will have much trouble dispatching his lightweight opponent. His best bet is to avoid the ground game and use his superior striking to batter Crane for three rounds.
Final Predictions:
UFCmania — Crane via submission
Holland — Huerta via unanimous decision
Kendall Grove (8-3) vs. Patrick Cote (10-4)
UFCmania: Season three winner of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), Kendall Grove, improves markedly every time he steps inside the Octagon. On August 25, things will be no different. Not even the chronic, er, punching power of Patrick Cote is going to derail this Hawaiian locomotive. At this point, against this level of competition, the only person who is going to beat Kendall Grove is himself. He’s super tall, tough and able to win this fight standing or on the mat. Sans a lucky punch, Grove is taking this win and looking ahead at cracking the upper echelon of the division in the near future.
Jesse Holland: It’s no secret that Patrick Cote has become something of a punchline at this point, but he does have a chance to beat Kendall Grove. He’s choked out another lanky fighter with an impressive resume in Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald and could also do it here. It’s not likely, but hey this is MMA and as we all know anything can happen. Better yet, Cote could swing for the fences and hope to score a flash knockout, like the punch that almost dropped Tito Ortiz back at UFC 50. I’ve never been a big fan of disengaging, but Cote should keep his distance and try to frustrate the rising star. If Grove gets frustrated he may try for something big and Cote can catch him. Or Cote can grease the steps leading up to the Octagon and hope Grove wipes out and sprains his ankle. I know in soccer it’s not uncommon for a player to get hit in the leg and collapse in a heap, feigning a groin injury. Maybe Cote can win by DQ? Like I said, anything can happen.
Final Predictions:
UFCmania — Grove via technical knockout
Holland — Grove via technical knockout
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and provide your picks for UFC 74.
For the complete UFC 74 fight card click here.
Quinton Jackson vs. 
Michael Bisping[6] 
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipović vs. 
Cheick Kongo[7] 
Alessio Sakara[8] 
Thiago Silva vs. 
Tomasz Drwal[10] 
Naoyuki Kotani vs. 
Dennis Siver [11] 
